What Makes This US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Shutdowns are a repeat element in American political life – however this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity among the two parties.

Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave since both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the impasse continue to fall short, with little visibility on an off-ramp this time as each side – including the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.

Here are the four ways that make things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base has been demanding for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership has a chance to show they have listened.

Earlier this year, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown early this year. This time he's digging in.

This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show they can take back some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.

The Democrats are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.

Additionally, they're attempting to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The administration leader and one of his key officials have openly indicated of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.

The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "Democrat agencies".

The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, which is headed by the key official.

The budget director has already announced the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.

Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.

Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.

The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".

Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, stating how a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.

The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the representative is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.

The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.

Fourth, The American Economy is fragile

Experts project about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.

That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.

On the other hand, analysts say that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.

Brandon Roberson
Brandon Roberson

A seasoned sports analyst and betting enthusiast with over a decade of experience in the industry.

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